Numerical Modelling and Prediction of Oil Slick Dispersion and Horizontal Movement at Bornholm Basin in Baltic Sea

Abstract

This paper presents an original approach to predicting oil slick movement and dispersion at the water surface. Special emphasis is placed on the impact of evolving hydro-meteorological conditions and the thickness of the oil spill layer. The main gap addressed by this study lies in the need for a comprehensive understanding of how changing environmental conditions and oil thickness interact to influence the movement and dispersion of oil slicks. By focusing on this aspect, this study aims to provide valuable insights into the complex dynamics of oil spill behaviour, enhancing the ability to predict and mitigate the environmental impacts of such incidents. Self-designed software was applied to develop and modify previously established mathematical probabilistic models for predicting changes in the shape of the oil trajectory. First, a semi-Markov model of the process is constructed, and the oil thickness is analysed at the sea surface over time. Next, a stochastic-based procedure to forecast the horizontal movement and dispersion of an oil slick in diverse hydro-meteorological conditions considering a varying oil layer thickness is presented. This involves determining the trajectory and movement of a slick domain, which consists of an elliptical combination of domains undergoing temporal changes. By applying the procedure and program, a short-term forecast of the horizontal movement and dispersion of an oil slick provided its trajectory at the Bornholm Basin of the Baltic Sea within two days. The research results obtained are preliminary prediction results, although the approach considered in this paper can help responders understand the scope of the problem and mitigate the effects of environmental damage if the oil discharge reaches sensitive ecosystems. Finally, further perspectives of this research are given.