Monthly and Quarterly Sea Surface Temperature Prediction Based on Gated Recurrent Unit Neural Network

Abstract

The sea surface temperature (SST) is an important parameter of the energy balance on the Earth’s surface. SST prediction is crucial to marine production, marine protection, and climate prediction. However, the current SST prediction model still has low precision and poor stability. In this study, a medium and long-term SST prediction model is designed on the basis of the gated recurrent unit (GRU) neural network algorithm. This model captures the SST time regularity by using the GRU layer and outputs the predicted results through the fully connected layer. The Bohai Sea, which is characterized by a large annual temperature difference, is selected as the study area, and the SSTs on different time scales (monthly and quarterly) are used to verify the practicability and stability of the model. The results show that the designed SST prediction model can efficiently fit the results of the real sea surface temperature, and the correlation coefficient is above 0.98. Regardless of whether monthly or quarterly data are used, the proposed network model performs better than long short-term memory in terms of stability and accuracy when the length of the prediction increases. The root mean square error and mean absolute error of the predicted SST are mostly within 0–2.5 °C.