Spatiotemporal Evolution and Driving Factors of Land Development: Evidence from Shandong Province, China

Abstract

As populations and economies have grown rapidly, questions of land development and use have intensified. It has become a major global concern to achieve sustainable land use practices. This study reveals evolution of the spatiotemporal pattern of land development intensity of counties in Shandong Province by introducing a land development intensity measurement model combined with three-dimensional trend surface and spatial autocorrelation analyses. Geodetector and geographically weighted regression models were employed to demonstrate the interplay and spatiotemporal heterogeneity between development intensity and drivers. The empirical results show that the value of land development intensity of counties in Shandong Province shows a general growth trend, with the number of counties with higher values gradually increasing and the number of counties with lower values gradually decreasing. We also found that the spatial heterogeneity of land development intensity across counties in Shandong Province is significant, and the spatial distribution pattern is basically consistent with the “one group, two centers and three circles” strategy proposed by the Shandong Provincial Government. There is also a positive spatial correlation and clustering effect of land development intensity of counties in Shandong Province. High (low) value clusters are concentrated in core hot (cold) counties, driving some of the surrounding counties towards radial development. The alteration in the intensity of county land development is a complex occurrence that is shaped by numerous factors. Among these, GDP per capita and population density have the primary influence on land development of counties in Shandong Province. To achieve coordinated regional social, economic, and environmental benefits, land development within the county should adhere to the principle of adapting to local conditions and implement differentiated development strategies according to different development intensities.