Research on Ecological Protection and High-Quality Development of the Lower Yellow River Based on System Dynamics

Abstract

The harmonious development between water resources, the economy, and the environment is the foundation of regional high-quality development, and the three are closely related. Based on a full analysis of the current situation of the lower Yellow River, this paper combines domestic and foreign studies, compares the framework of the relationship between water resources, the economy, and environment systems, selects 30 indicators such as average rainfall, natural population growth rate, PM2.5, etc., and establishes an evaluation model of the coupled coordination of the water resources–economy–environment system of the lower Yellow River, and then uses system dynamics to simulate and predict the degree of coupled coordination in the sub-scenarios. The conclusions are as follows: (1) The level of coordinated development in the water resources–environment system outperforms that of the water resources–economy and economy–environment systems in the cities along the lower Yellow River. (2) The coupling coordination degree of the lower reaches of the Yellow River increases from 0.5849 to 0.8209 during the period of 2006–2020, with an average annual increase of 2.62%. (3) A sub-scenario simulation for the 2006–2020 period indicated that the coordination development of the WEE system is optimal under the scenario 4 model, with the coupling coordination degree expected to reach 0.8928 in 2035, marking the advent of high-quality coordinated development. This study can provide a theoretical basis for the ecological protection and high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin.