To Share or Not to Share—Expected Transportation Mode Changes Given Different Types of Fully Automated Vehicles

Abstract

When it comes to climate change, automated vehicles (AV) are often presented as a key factor to reducing emissions related with the transport sector. While studies promise emissions savings of up to 80%, it is often overlooked how AVs will be introduced and which transportation mode changes will arise from their implementation. Therefore, this online survey examined usage intentions regarding private and shared AV types, and underlying attitudes and mobility needs of 136 current users of different main modes of transport. Two main results counteract the general assumption of ecological sustainability benefits of AVs: First, current car drivers prefer private over shared AV types, even though notable sustainability gains can only be expected from shared AVs. Second, current users of more sustainable modes of transport (walking, bike, public transport) would replace theses modes by AVs for substantial shares of their trips, which represents a behavioural rebound effect, since AVs cannot be more sustainable than walking or biking. Group-specific mobility needs and knowledge gaps regarding the sustainability of different AV types are identified as reasons for these results and as starting points for deriving necessary measures accompanying the introduction of AVs into society through motivating ecologically sustainable transportation mode changes.