Modeling Climate Change Impacts on Rice Growth and Yield under Global Warming of 1.5 and 2.0 °C in the Pearl River Delta, China

Abstract

In this study, the potential climate change impacts on rice growth and rice yield under 1.5 and 2.0 °C warming scenarios, respectively, are simulated using the Ceres-Rice Model based on high-quality, agricultural, experimental, meteorological and soil data, and the incorporation of future climate data generated by four Global Climate Models (GCMs) in the Pearl River Delta, China. The climatic data is extracted from four Global Climate Models (GCMs) namely: The Community Atmosphere Model 4 (CAM4), The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts-Hamburg 6 (ECHAM6), Model for Interdisciplinary Research On Climate 5 (MIROC5) and the Norwegian Earth System Model 1 (NorESM1). The modeling results show that climate change has major negative impacts on both rice growth and rice yields at all study sites. More specifically, the average of flowering durations decreases by 2.8 days (3.9 days), and the maturity date decreases by 11.0 days (14.7 days) under the 1.5 °C and (2.0 °C) warming scenarios, respectively. The yield for early mature rice and late mature rice are reduced by 292.5 kg/ha (558.9 kg/ha) and 151.8 kg/ha (380.0 kg/ha) under the 1.5 °C (2.0 °C) warming scenarios, respectively. Adjusting the planting dates of eight days later and 15 days earlier for early mature rice and late mature rice are simulated to be adaptively effective, respectively. The simulated optimum fertilizer amount is about 240 kg/ha, with different industrial fertilizer and organic matter being applied.