Land System Simulation of Ruoergai Plateau by Integrating MaxEnt and Boltzmann Entropy into CLUMondo

Abstract

In the context of global change, land cover change is significantly influenced by human activities. However, there is limited knowledge about the potential economic and ecological benefits that land cover change on the Ruoergai Plateau will bring by 2035, considering the existing development plans. In our study, the CLUMondo model was improved by integrating the MaxEnt model and Boltzmann entropy and used to predict the structure and intensity of land change in China’s Ruoergai Plateau. The results show that the model integrated with MaxEnt and Boltzmann entropy is the most accurate in four contrasting experiments that have a Kappa of 0.773. The predicted results show that with the increase in the demand for ecological benefits, the total area of the water area shows a clear increasing trend. With 0.25% GDP growth, the water area is about 178 km2. With 2.5% GEP growth, the water area is about 202 km2. The latter is 24 km2 more than the former, an increase of about 13.6%. With the increase in the demand for economic benefits, the total area of construction land shows a clear increasing trend. Grassland, forest, and cropland are partly converted into construction land, because of the higher economic benefits of construction land. At the same time, the density of construction land will increase. With 12.6% GDP growth, the high-density construction area is about 399 km2. With 126.1% GEP growth, the water area is about 761 km2. High-density construction land increased by 90.7% (about 362 km2). In the low elevation area near the mountains of Ruoergai County, a new concentration of construction land will appear. The simulation results are of great significance for guiding ecological protection and urban construction in Ruoergai.