Local Government’s Land Finance Dependence and Migrants’ Settlement Intentions: Evidence from China

Abstract

In the context of China’s new urbanization construction, it is crucial to deal with the issue of migrants. While land finance, as an essential means of local government financing in China over the past three decades, has made important contributions to China’s economic growth, the impact of land finance on the settlement intentions of migrants still needs to be studied. This study considered cross-sectional data containing 78,642 samples based on the 2017 China Migrants Dynamic Survey 2017 (CMDS) and China Land and Resources Statistical Yearbook. In addition, a binary choice model was constructed, and the impact of the degree of land finance on the settlement intentions of migrants for the prefecture-level cities in China was empirically analyzed. With the help of the mediating- and moderating-effect models, the impact of the degree of land finance on the settlement intentions of migrants was examined from the perspectives of housing pressure, social security, and housing property rights. The results show the following: (1) The higher the degree of land finance, the lower the settlement intentions of migrants. (2) Land finance’s effect on settlement intentions is stronger for urban domiciles, low-skilled laborers, in large cities, and eastern and southern cities in these samples. (3) The higher the degree of land finance, the greater the housing pressure on the migrants, further reducing the settlement intentions of these individuals. However, social security and homeownership can reduce the negative effect of land finance on the settlement intentions of migrants. This paper provides policy implications for the construction of new urbanization and the realization of modernization.