Spatial–Temporal Evolution Characteristics and Driving Factors of Rural Development in Northeast China

Abstract

An assessment of rural development and its driving factors can effectively reflect the characteristics and transformation of rural areas and provide important information for the formulation and implementation of rural development strategies. Taking Northeast China as study area, a rural development index framework was constructed from three dimensions, i.e., basic rural conditions, the state of agricultural development, and farmers’ living standards, based on which the rural development level of each city in Northeast China for the years 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015 and 2020 was assessed. Then, an exploratory spatial data analysis was used to explore the spatial and temporal variations in the rural development level in Northeast China during the period 2000–2020. The driving factors were also analyzed using a geographically and temporally weighted regression model. The results showed that the rural development level showed an increasing trend overall, with a spatial pattern of “high in the central, low in the east and west” in most periods. The degree of spatial agglomeration of the rural development level also showed a strengthening trend overall. The hots spots of rural development were mainly distributed in the Southern and Northern regions, while the cold spots were mostly concentrated in the central, eastern and western regions. Urbanization processes, elevation, annual precipitation and other natural factors have weakened the level of rural development to a certain extent, while agricultural production upgrading, an increase in the general public budget expenditure per capita and the sound financial situation of the government can promote rural development in Northeast China. The effects of the natural environment and local economic conditions on rural development were different in different regions. To improve rural development in the future, we should scientifically grasp the basic conditions, such as rural resource endowment, location conditions, agricultural technology, policies, investment and other external conditions, and formulate regional rural development strategies according to local conditions and in light of local rural characteristics.