Performance Assessment of Irrigation Projects in Nepal by Integrating Landsat Images and Local Data

Abstract

With growing global concern for food and water insecurity, an efficient method to monitor irrigation projects is essential, especially in the developing world where irrigation performance is often suboptimal. In Nepal, the irrigated area has not been objectively recorded, although their assessment has substantial implications for national policy, project’s annual budgets, and donor funding. Here, we present the application of Landsat images to measure irrigated areas in Nepal for the past 17 years to contribute to the assessment of the irrigation performance. Landsat 5 TM (2006–2011) and Landsat 8 OLI (2013–2022) images were used to develop a machine learning model, which classifies irrigated and non-irrigated areas in the study areas. The random forest classification achieved an overall accuracy of 82.2% and kappa statistics of 0.72. For the class of irrigation areas, the producer’s accuracy and consumer’s accuracy were 79% and 96%, respectively. Our regionally trained machine learning model outperforms the existing global cropland map, highlighting the need for such models for local irrigation project evaluations. We assess irrigation project performance and its drivers by combining long-term changes in satellite-derived irrigated areas with local data related to irrigation performance, such as annual budget, irrigation service fee, crop yield, precipitation, and main canal discharge.