Spatial Spillover and Threshold Effects of High-Quality Tourism Development on Carbon Emission Efficiency of Tourism under the “Double Carbon” Target: Case Study of Jiangxi, China

Abstract

High-quality tourism development under the “double carbon” target (the peaking of carbon emissions and achievement of carbon neutrality) is an important path to achieving low-carbon emissions in the tourism industry and is vital for improving the industry’s carbon emissions efficiency. Using spatial and temporal panel data for 11 prefecture-level cities in Jiangxi Province from 2000 to 2020, a spatial Durbin model and a threshold model were constructed to assess the spatial spillover and threshold effects that high-quality tourism development has on the carbon emission efficiency of the tourism industry. The three key results were as follows. (1) There is a non-linear relationship between the carbon emission efficiency of tourism and the high-quality development trend of tourism, with differences in spatial distribution. (2) Coordinated development, green development, and open development all have significant positive direct effects on the carbon emission efficiency of tourism. Innovation-driven and coordinated development have a positive spillover effect on the carbon emission efficiency of tourism. In contrast, green development, open development, and shared results have a negative spatial spillover effect. (3) When the scale of the tourism economy crosses the first threshold in the second stage and the structure of tourism investment crosses the second threshold in the third stage, the ability of the tourism quality development to enhance the tourism carbon emission efficiency is the largest. When the tourism investment structure and tourism carbon emission intensity cross a single threshold, the role of the tourism quality development level in enhancing the tourism carbon emission efficiency decreases. Accordingly, three types of countermeasures are proposed: solving development problems, tapping into positive spillovers, and scientifically describing the impact of thresholds. The ultimate goal of this is to provide theoretical references and innovative ideas for promoting green, low-carbon, and high-quality development of tourism in Jiangxi Province and elsewhere.