How to Develop Sustainably after Poverty Alleviation in Poverty-Stricken Areas under Paired Assistance: A Quantitative Assessment Framework Based on System Dynamics Model

Abstract

The paired assistance approach is an important measure for achieving poverty alleviation in China. The sustainable development of poverty-stricken areas after poverty alleviation has become an important task in preventing a return to poverty and promoting rural revitalization. Paired assistance is a dynamic process of balanced economic, social, and population development. This study establishes a system dynamics (SD) model for developing poverty-stricken regions under paired assistance. This study takes Lvchun County in Yunnan Province as the research object, designates six scenarios, and simulates the development of Lvchun County from 2019 to 2035 to evaluate its sustainable development after poverty alleviation. The results show that the cessation of poverty alleviation funding will not increase the incidence of poverty under paired assistance but will lead to an unbalanced scenario of “poor people and a rich government”. In the multi-scenario simulation, only by continuing the cooperation foundation formed by paired assistance and paying attention to the resource endowment of poverty-stricken areas can collaborative development be adopted to achieve sustainable development by 2030. This result may be a valuable resource for the world’s underdeveloped regions to reference as they seek to eliminate poverty, reduce the risk of returning to poverty, and promote sustainable development.