Characterization of Meteorological Droughts Occurrences in Côte d’Ivoire: Case of the Sassandra Watershed

Abstract

The Sassandra Basin, like most regions of Côte d'Ivoire, is increasingly affected by droughts that involve many environmental, social and economic impacts. This basin is full of several amenities such as hydroelectric dams, hydraulic and agricultural dams. There is also a strong agricultural activity. In the context of climate change, it is essential to analyze the occurrence of droughts in order to propose mitigation or adaptation measures for water management. The methodological approach consisted initially in characterizing the dry sequences by the use of the SPI (Standardized Precipitation Index) and secondly in determining the probabilities of occurrence of successive dry years using by Markov chains 1 and 2. The results indicate that most remarkable droughts in terms of intensity and duration occurred after the 1970s. A comparison of Markov matrices 1 and 2 between the period considered 1953–2015 with the periods 1953–1970 and 1971–2015 shows a profound change in the distribution of droughts at the different station. Thus, the probability of having two successive dry years is greater over the period 1970–2015 and is accentuated to the Southern and Northern regions (probabilities ranging from 71% to 80%) of the basin. Over the 1970–2015 period, the probability of obtaining three successive dry years is significantly high in this watershed (between 20% and 70%).