A Generic Encapsulation to Unravel Social Spreading of a Pandemic: An Underlying Architecture

Abstract

Cases of a new emergent infectious disease caused by mutations in the coronavirus family, called “COVID-19,” have spiked recently, affecting millions of people, and this has been classified as a global pandemic due to the wide spread of the virus. Epidemiologically, humans are the targeted hosts of COVID-19, whereby indirect/direct transmission pathways are mitigated by social/spatial distancing. People naturally exist in dynamically cascading networks of social/spatial interactions. Their rational actions and interactions have huge uncertainties in regard to common social contagions with rapid network proliferations on a daily basis. Different parameters play big roles in minimizing such uncertainties by shaping the understanding of such contagions to include cultures, beliefs, norms, values, ethics, etc. Thus, this work is directed toward investigating and predicting the viral spread of the current wave of COVID-19 based on human socio-behavioral analyses in various community settings with unknown structural patterns. We examine the spreading and social contagions in unstructured networks by proposing a model that should be able to (1) reorganize and synthesize infected clusters of any networked agents, (2) clarify any noteworthy members of the population through a series of analyses of their behavioral and cognitive capabilities, (3) predict where the direction is heading with any possible outcomes, and (4) propose applicable intervention tactics that can be helpful in creating strategies to mitigate the spread. Such properties are essential in managing the rate of spread of viral infections. Furthermore, a novel spectra-based methodology that leverages configuration models as a reference network is proposed to quantify spreading in a given candidate network. We derive mathematical formulations to demonstrate the viral spread in the network structures.