The Effects of Individuals’ Opinion and Non-Opinion Characteristics on the Organization of Influence Networks in the Online Domain

Abstract

The opinion dynamics literature argues that the way people perceive social influence depends not only on the opinions of interacting individuals, but also on the individuals’ non-opinion characteristics, such as age, education, gender, or place of residence. The current paper advances this line of research by studying longitudinal data that describe the opinion dynamics of a large sample (~30,000) of online social network users, all citizens of one city. Using these data, we systematically investigate the effects of users’ demographic (age, gender) and structural (degree centrality, the number of common friends) properties on opinion formation processes. We revealed that females are less easily influenced than males. Next, we found that individuals that are characterized by similar ages have more chances to reach a consensus. Additionally, we report that individuals who have many common peers find an agreement more often. We also demonstrated that the impacts of these effects are virtually the same, and despite being statistically significant, are far less strong than that of opinion-related features: knowing the current opinion of an individual and, what is even more important, the distance in opinions between this individual and the person that attempts to influence the individual is much more valuable. Next, after conducting a series of simulations with an agent-based model, we revealed that accounting for non-opinion characteristics may lead to not very sound but statistically significant changes in the macroscopic predictions of the populations of opinion camps, primarily among the agents with radical opinions (≈3% of all votes). In turn, predictions for the populations of neutral individuals are virtually the same. In addition, we demonstrated that the accumulative effect of non-opinion features on opinion dynamics is seriously moderated by whether the underlying social network correlates with the agents’ characteristics. After applying the procedure of random shuffling (in which the agents and their characteristics were randomly scattered over the network), the macroscopic predictions have changed by ≈9% of all votes. What is interesting is that the population of neutral agents was again not affected by this intervention.