Calibration of the Ångström–Prescott Model for Accurately Estimating Solar Radiation Spatial Distribution in Areas with Few Global Solar Radiation Stations: A Case Study of the China Tropical Zone

Abstract

The Ångström–Prescott formula is commonly used in climatological calculation methods of solar radiation simulation. Aiming at the characteristics of a vast area, few meteorological stations, and uneven distribution in the tropical regions of China, in order to obtain the optimal parameters of the global solar radiation calculation model, this study proposes a suitable monthly global solar radiation model based on the single-station approach and the between-groups linkage of the A–P model, which utilizes monthly measured meteorological data from 80 meteorological stations spanning the period from 1996 to 2016 in the tropical zone of China, considering the similarity in changes of monthly sunshine percentage between stations. The applicability and accuracy of the correction parameters (a and b coefficients) were tested and evaluated, and then the modified parameters were extended to conventional meteorological stations through Thiessen polygons. Finally, the spatial distribution of solar radiation in the tropical region of China was simulated by kriging, IDW, and spline interpolation techniques. The results show the following: (1) The single-station model exhibited the highest accuracy in simulating the average annual global solar radiation, followed by the model based on the between-groups linkage. After optimizing the a and b coefficients, the simulation accuracy of the average annual global solar radiation increased by 5.3%, 8.1%, and 4.4% for the whole year, dry season, and wet season, respectively. (2) Through cross-validation, the most suitable spatial interpolation methods for the whole year, dry season, and wet season in the tropical zone of China were IDW, Kriging, and Spline, respectively. This research has positive implications for improving the accuracy of solar radiation prediction and guiding regional agricultural production.