Examining the Predictability of Tropical Cyclogenesis over the East Sea of Vietnam through the Ensemble-Based Data Assimilation System

Author:

Hoa Dao Nguyen-Quynh1,Tien Tran-Tan1,Nhu Nguyen-Y1ORCID,Dao Thi Lan2

Affiliation:

1. VNU University of Science, Vietnam National University, Hanoi 100000, Vietnam

2. School of Geography, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences and ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC 3010, Australia

Abstract

In this study, we conducted experiments to assess the forecasting capabilities for tropical cyclone (TC) genesis over the east sea of Vietnam using the ensemble-based data assimilation system (EPS-DA) by WRF-LETKF. These experiments covered forecast lead times of up to 5 days and spanned a period from 2012 to 2019, involving a total of 45 TC formation events. The evaluation involved forecast probability assessments and positional and timing error analysis. Results indicated that successful forecasting depends on the lead time and initial condition quality. For TC formation from an embryo vortex to tropical depression intensity, the EPS-DA system demonstrated improved accuracy as the forecast cycle approached the actual formation time. TC centers converged towards observed locations, highlighting the potential of assimilation up to 5 days before formation. We examined statistical variations in dynamic and thermodynamic variables relevant to TC processes, offering an objective system assessment. Our study emphasized that early warnings of TC development appear linked to formation-time environmental conditions, particularly strong vorticity and enhanced moisture processes.

Funder

Melbourne Research Scholarship

Rowden White Scholarship

Australian Research Council (ARC) Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes

Publisher

MDPI AG

Subject

Atmospheric Science,Environmental Science (miscellaneous)

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