Significant Reduction in Precipitation Seasonality and the Association with Extreme Precipitation in the Hai River Basin of China from 1960 to 2018

Abstract

The Hai River Basin (HRB) serves as a vital center for the population, economy and politics in northern China. Natural hazards, particularly floods, pose significant risks to the region, often attributed to extreme precipitation events. Changes in precipitation seasonalitycc play a pivotal role in influencing precipitation extreme events. Therefore, this study presents a comprehensive analysis of precipitation seasonality and its impact on precipitation extremes in HRB. By implementing a novel relative entropy method, we calculated the precipitation seasonality indicators using daily precipitation observations from 1960 to 2018 in HRB. We found a significant decreasing trend in precipitation seasonality (−0.03 decade−1, p = 0.04), accompanied by an earlier onset date (4.0 days decade−1, p = 0.01) and longer duration (4.3 days decade−1, p = 0.03) of the wet season. Notably, these trends are notably concentrated in the Beijing-Tianjin administrative regions. Additionally, a lower precipitation seasonality value indicated a more evenly distributed precipitation throughout the year, resulting in reduced occurrences of precipitation extremes. Consistently, we observed two precipitation extremes, extreme wet day precipitation R99T and maximum 1-day precipitation RX1Day, which exhibited significant decreasing trends at the rate of −0.5 mm decade−1 (p = 0.02) and −1.4 mm decade−1 (p = 0.05), respectively. Furthermore, we detected significant positive correlations of 0.31 (p = 0.02) and 0.35 (p = 0.01) between precipitation seasonality and precipitation extremes (R95T and R99T), suggesting that a more evenly distributed precipitation across seasons corresponds to fewer precipitation extremes over the past sixty years. Metropolitan areas, in particular, experienced a noteworthy reduction in precipitation seasonality and a decreased frequency of precipitation extreme events. The findings of this study shed new light on the intricate relationship between precipitation seasonality and extreme events, further helping policy making develop effective risk regulations for agriculture, floods, and urban waterlogging, ensuring sustainable development within the HRB.