A Refined Atmospheric Weighted Average Temperature Model Considering Multiple Factors in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau Region

Abstract

The Qinghai–Tibet Plateau region has significant altitude fluctuations and complex climate changes. However, the current global weighted average temperature (Tm) model does not fully consider the impact of meteorological and elevation factors on it, resulting in existing models being unable to accurately predict the Tm in the region. Therefore, this study constructed a weighted average temperature refinement model (XTm) related to surface temperature, water vapor pressure, geopotential height, annual variation, and semi-annual variation based on measured data from 13 radiosonde stations in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau region from 2008 to 2017. Using the Tm calculated via the numerical integration method of radiosonde observations in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau region from 2018 to 2019 as a reference value, the quality of the XTm model was tested and compared with the Bevis model and GPT2w (global pressure and temperature 2 wet) model. The results show that for 13 modeling stations, the bias and root-mean-square (RMS) values of the XTm model were −0.02 K and 2.83 K, respectively; compared with the Bevis, GPT2-1, and GPT2w-5 models, the quality of XTm was increased by 47%, 38%, and 47%, respectively. For the four non-modeling stations, the average bias and RMS values of the XTm model were 0.58 K and 2.78 K, respectively; compared with the other three Tm models, the RMS values and the mean bias were both minimal. In addition, the XTm model was also used to calculate the global navigation satellite system (GNSS) precipitable water vapor (PWV), and its average values for the theoretical RMSPWV and RMSPWV/PWV generated by water vapor calculation were 0.11 mm and 1.03%, respectively. Therefore, in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau region, the XTm model could predict more accurate Tm values, which, in turn, is important for water vapor monitoring.