An Ensemble Model for PM2.5 Concentration Prediction Based on Feature Selection and Two-Layer Clustering Algorithm

Abstract

Determining accurate PM2.5 pollution concentrations and understanding their dynamic patterns are crucial for scientifically informed air pollution control strategies. Traditional reliance on linear correlation coefficients for ascertaining PM2.5-related factors only uncovers superficial relationships. Moreover, the invariance of conventional prediction models restricts their accuracy. To enhance the precision of PM2.5 concentration prediction, this study introduces a novel integrated model that leverages feature selection and a clustering algorithm. Comprising three components—feature selection, clustering, and integrated prediction—the model first employs the non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm (NSGA-III) to identify the most impactful features affecting PM2.5 concentration within air pollutants and meteorological factors. This step offers more valuable feature data for subsequent modules. The model then adopts a two-layer clustering method (SOM+K-means) to analyze the multifaceted irregularity within the dataset. Finally, the model establishes the Extreme Learning Machine (ELM) weak learner for each classification, integrating multiple weak learners using the AdaBoost algorithm to obtain a comprehensive prediction model. Through feature correlation enhancement, data irregularity exploration, and model adaptability improvement, the proposed model significantly enhances the overall prediction performance. Data sourced from 12 Beijing-based monitoring sites in 2016 were utilized for an empirical study, and the model’s results were compared with five other predictive models. The outcomes demonstrate that the proposed model significantly heightens prediction accuracy, offering useful insights and potential for broadened application to multifactor correlation concentration prediction methodologies for other pollutants.