Study on Seasonal Characteristics and Causes of Marine Heatwaves in the South China Sea over Nearly 30 Years

Abstract

Marine heatwaves (MHWs) are becoming more frequent and intense in many regions around the world, as well as in China’s marginal seas. However, the seasonal characteristics and associated physical drivers of MHWs are largely unknown. In this study, we analyze, based on multiple reanalysis and numerical model data, the seasonal characteristics and causes of MHWs in the South China Sea (SCS) over a near 30-year period (1991–2022). There exist significant seasonal variabilities in the spatiotemporal features and formation mechanisms of MHWs. MHWs in the SCS show significant increasing trends in terms of frequency, duration, and intensity. MHWs during the summer half-year are stronger than the winter half-year as a whole, with them being more likely to occur over the eastern SCS in the summer half-year and the western region in the winter half-year. However, the increasing trend of MHWs in the winter half-year exceed those in the summer. Additionally, we find that MHWs are associated with the unusually strong west Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) both in the summer and winter half-years. Nevertheless, the dominant factors for MHWs are different in the varied seasons. According to upper ocean temperature equation analysis, surface heat flux anomalies (especially shortwave radiation flux) are major effect factors in the summer half-year, while ocean dynamic processes play the main role in the winter half-year. An analysis of the typical MHWs also proves this conclusion. Moreover, MHWs occurring in winter are often accompanied by temperature anomalies within the mixed-layer depth. The findings imply that the formation mechanisms and space–time distribution of MHWs exist with a seasonal contrast in the SCS, rather than simply being due to large-scale circulation and flux anomalies. This may provide a useful reference for a deeper understanding and forecasting of MHWs under different seasons and weather.