Modeling the Combined Effect of Travelers’ Contrarian Behavior, Learning and Inertia on the Day-to-Day Dynamics of Route Choice

Abstract

Understanding the many facets of repeated route choice behavior in traffic networks is essential for obtaining accurate flow forecasts and enhancing the effectiveness of traffic management measures. This paper presents a model of the day-to-day evolution of route choices incorporating travelers’ contrarian behavior, learning and inertia. The model is formulated as a discrete-time nonlinear dynamical system, and its properties are investigated analytically and numerically with a focus on the effect of the fraction of individuals adopting a contrarian route choice behavior. The findings of the study indicate that the extent of contrarian behavior may have significant impacts on the attractiveness and stability of network equilibria as well as on global system performance. We show that a properly balanced combination of direct and contrarian subjects can protect the system from instabilities triggered by other behavioral and network features. Our results also suggest that the fixed point stability range may depend to a considerable extent on travelers’ inertia and memory of previous experiences, as well as on the form of the travel cost functions used in the model. The occurrence of contrarian behavior should be explicitly taken into account in the design of traffic management schemes involving the deployment of Advanced Traveler Information Systems (ATISs), as it may act as a mitigating factor against the concentration of choices on the recommended routes. The analytical framework proposed in this paper represents a novel contribution, since contrarian behavior in repeated route choice has been investigated mainly by means of empirical or simulation approaches thus far.