Machine Learning Models Using SHapley Additive exPlanation for Fire Risk Assessment Mode and Effects Analysis of Stadiums

Abstract

Machine learning methods can establish complex nonlinear relationships between input and response variables for stadium fire risk assessment. However, the output of machine learning models is considered very difficult due to their complex “black box” structure, which hinders their application in stadium fire risk assessment. The SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) method makes a local approximation to the predictions of any regression or classification model so as to be faithful and interpretable, and assigns significant values (SHAP value) to each input variable for a given prediction. In this study, we designed an indicator attribute threshold interval to classify and quantify different fire risk category data, and then used a random forest model combined with SHAP strategy in order to establish a stadium fire risk assessment model. The main objective is to analyze the impact analysis of each risk characteristic on four different risk assessment models, so as to find the complex nonlinear relationship between risk characteristics and stadium fire risk. This helps managers to be able to make appropriate fire safety management and smart decisions before an incident occurs and in a targeted manner to reduce the incidence of fires. The experimental results show that the established interpretable random forest model provides 83% accuracy, 86% precision, and 85% recall for the stadium fire risk test dataset. The study also shows that the low level of data makes it difficult to identify the range of decision boundaries for Critical mode and Hazardous mode.