Time Series Modeling Analysis of the Development and Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Spa Tourism in Slovakia

Abstract

Natural healing resources in the form of mineral and thermal waters and climatic conditions, together with a rich history and modern medical procedures, rank Slovakia among the important European countries in the field of spas. At the same time, spa tourism has a significant economic benefit for the country. This study examined the impact of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic on spa tourism in Slovakia. The Box-Jenkins methodology was used to model and forecast the time series for selected indicators. The analysis used monthly data on the capacity and performance of spa facilities for 2006–2019 and compared the forecast development for 2020–2021 with the reality as affected by the pandemic. Despite the high quality of the models, the methodology used did not take into account an unexpected event such as a pandemic. Therefore, the models were quite inaccurate and had little predictive value. At the same time, it is clear that the pandemic significantly affected spa tourism.