Fading Attraction of the Shrinking City: An Empirical Study from an Urban Resource Perspective

Abstract

The accelerated flow of resources and the population has resulted in the coexistence of the expansion and shrinkage of cities. The shrinking city is not a new thing, but it is a new problem that needs to be solved urgently in China. Urban resources reveal the direct cause of the shrinking city: attraction, which reflects the competition for external resources and the endowment of the intrinsic resources of cities. Therefore, this paper established the Urban Resource Degree (URD) model to measure the urban resource degree of the shrinking city. Factors were then selected to analyze the ways in which they influence the shrinking cities. Given the spillover effect and heterogeneity of the influencing factors, a Spatial Durbin Model (SDM) and a Spatiotemporal Geographically Weighted Regression Model (GTWR) were used to conduct a spatial spillover (SSA) and spatial heterogeneity (SHA) analysis of the URD of the shrinking cities in Northeast China. The results show that the ability gap to compete for and control resources between prefecture-level shrinking cities and county-level shrinking cities is narrowed. From the SSA and SHA perspectives, the influence factors can be categorized into three types: “High West–Low East and Negative–Positive Spillover”, “Low West and High East Positive–Negative Spillover”, “Low Northwest and High Southeast Negative Spillover”. Finally, policy implications are proposed to provide support for policy-making.