Comparative Analysis of Data-Driven Models for Marine Engine In-Cylinder Pressure Prediction

Abstract

In-cylinder pressure is a key parameter for assessing marine engines health; therefore, its measurement or prediction is paramount for these engines’ diagnosis. Thermodynamic models are typically employed for predicting the in-cylinder pressure, which, however, face challenges pertinent to their calibration and computational time requirements. Recent advances in the field of machine learning have leveraged the development of data-driven models. This study aims to compare two approaches for input features and six regression techniques to select the most effective combination for developing data-driven models to predict the in-cylinder pressure of marine four-stroke engines. Two approaches with different input and output features are initially compared. The first employs regression to directly predict the in-cylinder pressure signal, whereas the second predicts the harmonics coefficients by regression and subsequently estimates the in-cylinder pressure by using a Fourier series function. Typical regression techniques, including linear, elastic, and polynomial regression, support vector machines (SVM), decision trees (DT), and artificial neural networks (ANN), are employed to develop data-driven models based on the second approach. The required datasets for training and testing are derived by using a physical digital twin for the investigated marine engine, which is calibrated against the shop trials and acquired shipboard measurements. The accuracy of the data-driven models are estimated based on the root mean square error considering the testing datasets. For the data-driven model based on the second approach and the ANN regression, a sensitivity study is carried out considering the training datasets and the harmonics number to derive recommendations for these parameters’ values. The results demonstrate that the second approach provides higher accuracy, whereas the ANN regression is the most effective technique for developing data-driven models to estimate the in-cylinder pressure, as the exhibited root mean square error is retained within ±0.2 bar for the ANN trained with 20 samples. This study supports the development and use of data-driven models for marine engines health diagnosis.