Decision-Making Challenges of Sustainable Groundwater Strategy under Multi-Event Pressure in Arid Environments: The Diyala River Basin in Iraq

Abstract

A robust decision-making tool is needed to meet sustainability challenges and to manage water resources that are under development pressure, water scarcity, and climate change impact. To tackle such challenges, optimization modelling can be employed to explore regional sustainable management scenarios of groundwater exploitation. Multi-objective management modelling of various alternatives was developed for the Diyala River Basin in Iraq using Borg multi-objectives evolutionary algorithm (MOEA) and ε-DSEA algorithms. In almost all modelled cases, the upper aquifer storage is predicted to be depleted after 40 years due to large water demands and regional recharge scarcity. Hence, there is a need to develop a strategy to reduce water stresses by 45% to achieve sustainability within the next 25 years. Optimization modelling successfully generated future predictions that can be used by decision makers to manage the predicted groundwater shortages in the future.