Real-Time Water Level Prediction in Open Channel Water Transfer Projects Based on Time Series Similarity

Abstract

Changes in the opening of gates in open channel water transfer projects will cause fluctuations in the water level and flow of adjacent open channels and thus bring great challenges for real-time water level prediction. In this paper, a novel slope-similar shape method is proposed for real-time water level prediction when the change of gate opening at the next moment is known. The water level data points of three consecutive moments constitute the query. The slope similarity is used to find the historical water level datasets with similar change trend to the query, and then the best slope similarity dataset is determined according to the similarity index and the gate opening change. The water level difference of the next moment of the best similar data point is the water level difference of the predicted moment, and thus the water level at the next moment can be obtained. A case study is performed with the Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project of China. The results show that 87.5% of datasets with a water level variation of less than 0.06 m have an error less than 0.03 m, 71.4% of which have an error less than 0.02 m. In conclusion, the proposed method is feasible, effective, and interpretable, and the study provides valuable insights into the development of scheduling schemes.