Spatial–Temporal Evolution and Driving Factors of the Low–Carbon Transition of Farmland Use in Coastal Areas of Guangdong Province

Abstract

The low–carbon transition of farmland use (LCTFU) is an effective measure to coordinate the development of farmland and the environment to meet China’s “dual carbon” and green agricultural transformation goals. We studied the spatial–temporal evolution of the LCTFU and further explored the driving factors of the LCTFU by applying a geographically weighted regression model (GWR) to the coastal cities of Guangdong Province from 2000 to 2020. The results show that (1) temporally, the comprehensive, spatial, functional, and mode transitions of farmland use in coastal areas of Guangdong Province generally declined. The LCTFU level in most counties was low, and the difference in the LCTFU level among counties was narrowing. (2) Spatially, the LCTFU generally followed a high–to–low spatial distribution pattern, with high LCTFU values in the east and west and low values in the center. (3) The hotspots of the comprehensive, spatial, functional, and mode transitions were mainly concentrated in the eastern part of the study area, while the cold spots were in the central region, which is generally consistent with the spatial distribution of high– and low–value areas of the LCTFU. (4) The spatial migration path of the LCTFU migrated from northeast to southwest, with the main body of the standard deviation ellipse in the middle of the study area, displaying a C–shaped spatial pattern with weak expansion. (5) Economic, social, and environmental factors jointly contributed to the spatial–temporal evolution of the LCTFU, with social factors being the strongest driver.