Forage Supply–Demand Assessment and Influencing Factor Analysis from the Perspective of Socio-Ecological System: A Case Study of Altay Prefecture, China

Abstract

The provision and utilization of grassland resources connect grassland ecosystems and pastoral society. Revealing the mechanism behind the forage supply–demand relationship and balancing forage supply and demand is essential in pastoral socio-ecological systems. Taking Altay Prefecture as the case study, this study quantified the dynamics of natural forage supply, artificial supplemental forage, and forage demand. The ratio of forage supply to demand was calculated in the traditional grazing scenario and the grazing prohibition and supplemental feeding scenario. The results showed that during 2001–2018, the forage supplied by natural grasslands fluctuated, with the highest and lowest values in 2013 and 2008, respectively. The artificial supplemental forage increased at a higher rate in 2011–2018 than in 2001–2010. The overall trend of forage demand was upward, at approximately 2.98 × 104 t/a. The ratio of forage supply to demand decreased in the traditional scenario with an average value of 0.4717 and increased in the grazing prohibition and supplemental feeding scenario with an average value of 0.8289. The influencing factors were analyzed from the perspective of the interactions between the socio-ecological system elements, and the forage supply–demand relationships were conceptualized based on the social–ecological system framework. This study concludes that natural grasslands cannot entirely meet the increasing forage demand without artificial supplemental forage. The increasing artificial supplemental forage has promoted a balance between forage supply and demand, indicating an optimized grassland utilization pattern. The factors that affect forage supply–demand relationships are interrelated, and a holistic perspective should be adopted when implementing management measures.