Multi-Scenario Simulation and Assessment of Ecosystem Service Value at the City Level from the Perspective of “Production–Living–Ecological” Spaces: A Case Study of Haikou, China

Abstract

Structural changes in land use caused by urban development are one of the most important threats to ecosystem services. An in-depth study of the impacts that different land use patterns have on ecosystem service value (ESV) can provide guidance for sustainable urban planning and ecological conservation. In this research, we sought to explore the response mechanisms of ecosystem services under different urban development scenarios from the perspective of “production–living–ecological” space (PLES). This study combined the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model and ESV equivalent factor method to simulate the PLES and ESV of Haikou in 2035 under three scenarios of business as usual (BAU), ecological conservation (EC) and economic development (ED), and used the spatial superposition method, transfer matrix, and optimized cross-sensitivity analysis to explore the influence of the PLES on ecosystem services. The ESV of Haikou showed a declining trend from 2010 to 2020 under the influence of PLES changes and was at risk of further decline in the future. The reduction in the value of the water supply service constituted a major part of the loss of ESV. The simulation results demonstrated that the EC scenario had the most rational and ecologically efficient allocation of PLES, with the highest ESV and the lowest sensitivity to PLES changes. The results of this research can serve as an important reference for optimizing the urban land use structure and maintaining the stability of ecosystem services.