Status of Sino–Russian Trade in Agricultural Products: Dual Consideration Based on Characteristics and Growth

Abstract

The security of agricultural product supply is crucial for social development. For populous and resource-rich countries like China and Russia, strengthening their bilateral trade in agricultural products is essential to ensure stability and security in the global food market. However, current research on their agricultural product trade lacks sufficient detail. This article aims to analyze the overall trend of agricultural product trading between China and Russia based on trade data from 2007 to 2021. Different trade indexes will be used to examine the four aspects of the agricultural product trade characteristics of both countries. The constant market share model will be employed to analyze the growth factors of agricultural product trade between the two nations, providing insights into the driving force behind changes in agricultural exports. The findings of this study demonstrate that bilateral agricultural trade between China and Russia shows complementarity and high trade intensity. Intra-industry trade represents the primary form of agricultural product exchange, while inter-industry trade serves as a supplemental form of trade. In terms of trade growth impact, the bilateral agricultural trade between China and Russia is primarily influenced by the effect of product structure, followed by competitiveness. Therefore, in the face of uncertain situations, such as counter-globalization and localized trade frictions, specific recommendations will be provided to optimize the trade structure of agricultural products between the two nations.