‘The Best of Two Worlds’—Combining Classifier Fusion and Ecological Models to Map and Explain Landscape Invasion by an Alien Shrub

Abstract

The spread of invasive alien species promotes ecosystem structure and functioning changes, with detrimental effects on native biodiversity and ecosystem services, raising challenges for local management authorities. Predictions of invasion dynamics derived from modeling tools are often spatially coarse and therefore unsuitable for guiding local management. Accurate information on the occurrence of invasive plants and on the main factors that promote their spread is critical to define successful control strategies. For addressing this challenge, we developed a dual framework combining satellite image classification with predictive ecological modeling. By combining data from georeferenced invaded areas with multispectral imagery with 10-meter resolution from Sentinel-2 satellites, a map of areas invaded by the woody invasive Acacia longifolia in a municipality of northern Portugal was devised. Classifier fusion techniques were implemented through which eight statistical and machine-learning algorithms were ensembled to produce accurate maps of invaded areas. Through a Random Forest (RF) model, these maps were then used to explore the factors driving the landscape-level abundance of A. longifolia. RF models were based on explanatory variables describing hypothesized environmental drivers, including climate, topography/geomorphology, soil properties, fire disturbance, landscape composition, linear structures, and landscape spatial configuration. Satellite-based maps synoptically described the spatial patterns of invaded areas, with classifications attaining high accuracy values (True Skill Statistic, TSS: 0.895, Area Under the Receiver Operating Curve, ROC: 0.988, Kappa: 0.857). The predictive RF models highlighted the primary role of climate, followed by landscape composition and configuration, as the most important drivers explaining the species abundance at the landscape level. Our innovative dual framework—combining image classification and predictive ecological modeling—can guide decision-making processes regarding effective management of invasions by prioritizing the invaded areas and tackling the primary environmental and anthropogenic drivers of the species’ abundance and spread.