Asymmetric Differences in the Effects of Average Air Temperature and Solar Radiation on Early Rice and Late Rice Yield

Abstract

China is the world’s largest rice producer. Thus, the stability of rice production plays a decisive role in food security. Among the types of rice, double rice (including early rice and late rice) accounts for the largest proportion of rice in China. Climate change is widely expected to affect rice yields. Studying the response of double rice yield to climate change will benefit strategic decisions related to future crop adaptation. In this paper, the relationship between climate factors and the yield of double rice during 1992–2013 in south China was analysed to determine the responses of double rice yield to climate change. The results showed that the daily average air temperature during the early rice and late rice growing seasons increased by 0.34 °C and 0.68 °C, 0.29 °C and 0.67 °C, and 0.11 °C and 0.31 °C per 10-year period in the northern subtropical zone (NST), middle subtropical zone (MST) and south subtropical zone (SST), respectively, in the last 20 years. The change trend in solar radiation was not obvious, but it fluctuated greatly. A 1 °C increase in average air temperatures decreased early rice yield by 5.36% and 2.16% in SST and MST, respectively; decreased late rice yield by 0.75% and 1.43% in MST and NST, respectively; and increased late rice yield by 3.93% in SST. A solar radiation increases of 100 MJ m−2 increased early rice yield by 1.02%, 1.54% and 1.71% in SST, MST and NST, respectively, and decreased late rice yield by 0.89% in SST. We found that annual average temperatures of 17.3 °C and 18.6 °C were the early rice and late rice yield variation thresholds, respectively; in addition, above the background temperature in south China, the early rice yield will decrease and the late rice yield will increase.