Security Challenges and Air Quality Management in India: Emissions Inventory and Forecasting Estimates

Abstract

The defense and peace literature have focused mainly on the military-growth nexus, with little attention paid to the environmental sustainability agenda, which is impacted by increased global arms transfers. The supply of lead-containing ammunition generates complex gas mixtures (including CO2 emissions) and particulates that harm the healthcare sustainability agenda. Based on the significance of the subject matter, the study uses the Indian economy as a case study, with a significant rate of arms transfers associated with higher carbon emissions. The study analyzed data from more than four decades, from 1975 to 2020. Data on arms imports, military personnel, and military expenditures are used to evaluate the ‘ammunition emissions function’. It corresponds to the three research hypotheses, namely, the ‘emissions-defense burden hypothesis’ (arms transfers increase carbon emissions), the ‘emissions-cleaner hypothesis’ (arms transfers reduce carbon emissions), and the ‘emissions-asymmetric hypothesis’ (positive and negative shocks of arms transfers either support the ‘defense burden hypothesis’ or ‘cleaner hypothesis’). The non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) results confirmed the ’emissions-defense burden hypothesis‘ in the long run, as positive and negative shocks from arms imports increase carbon emissions. However, in the short run, positive arms imports increase carbon emissions while negative arms imports decrease carbon emissions. Furthermore, the findings supported the ’emissions-cleaner hypothesis‘ in the relationship between armed forces personnel and carbon emissions. The findings imply that the positive and negative shocks experienced by armed forces personnel reduce carbon emissions in the short and long run. Positive shocks to military spending support the ’emissions-defense burden hypothesis‘ in the short run; however, the results vanished when negative shocks to military spending supported the ’emissions-spillover hypothesis‘ (lowering military spending reduces carbon emissions and increases economic productivity) in the short and long run. The country’s unsustainable economic activities are viewed as a negative factor contributing to long-term carbon emissions increases. The negative shocks of armed forces personnel and positive arms imports would almost certainly have a significant long-term impact on carbon emissions. As a result, the ‘treadmill theory of destruction’ has been confirmed in a country. The study concludes that lead-free ammunition and managing ammunition safety are beneficial to a country’s environmental sustainability agenda.