Data-Driven Community Flood Resilience Prediction

Abstract

Climate change and the development of urban centers within flood-prone areas have significantly increased flood-related disasters worldwide. However, most flood risk categorization and prediction efforts have been focused on the hydrologic features of flood hazards, often not considering subsequent long-term losses and recovery trajectories (i.e., community’s flood resilience). In this study, a two-stage Machine Learning (ML)-based framework is developed to accurately categorize and predict communities’ flood resilience and their response to future flood hazards. This framework is a step towards developing comprehensive, proactive flood disaster management planning to further ensure functioning urban centers and mitigate the risk of future catastrophic flood events. In this framework, resilience indices are synthesized considering resilience goals (i.e., robustness and rapidity) using unsupervised ML, coupled with climate information, to develop a supervised ML prediction algorithm. To showcase the utility of the framework, it was applied on historical flood disaster records collected by the US National Weather Services. These disaster records were subsequently used to develop the resilience indices, which were then coupled with the associated historical climate data, resulting in high-accuracy predictions and, thus, utility in flood resilience management studies. To further demonstrate the utilization of the framework, a spatial analysis was developed to quantify communities’ flood resilience and vulnerability across the selected spatial domain. The framework presented in this study is employable in climate studies and patio-temporal vulnerability identification. Such a framework can also empower decision makers to develop effective data-driven climate resilience strategies.