Study in Natural Time of Geoelectric Field and Seismicity Changes Preceding the Mw6.8 Earthquake on 25 October 2018 in Greece

Abstract

A strong earthquake of magnitude M w 6.8 struck Western Greece on 25 October 2018 with an epicenter at 37.515 ∘ N 20.564 ∘ E. It was preceded by an anomalous geolectric signal that was recorded on 2 October 2018 at a measuring station 70 km away from the epicenter. Upon analyzing this signal in natural time, we find that it conforms to the conditions suggested for its identification as precursory Seismic Electric Signal (SES) activity. Notably, the observed lead time of 23 days lies within the range of values that has been very recently identified as being statistically significant for the precursory variations of the electric field of the Earth. Moreover, the analysis in natural time of the seismicity subsequent to the SES activity in the area candidate to suffer this strong earthquake reveals that the criticality conditions were obeyed early in the morning of 18 October 2018, i.e., almost a week before the strong earthquake occurrence, in agreement with earlier findings. Finally, when employing the recent method of nowcasting earthquakes, which is based on natural time, we find an earthquake potential score around 80%.