Driving Forces of Air Pollution in Ulaanbaatar City Between 2005 and 2015: An Index Decomposition Analysis

Abstract

Ulaanbaatar, the capital city of Mongolia, is facing serious air pollution challenges—especially during the cold and long winter months—mainly due to fossil fuel combustion. This study investigates the socioeconomic drivers of the sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and particulate matter (PM2.5) concentration changes in Ulaanbaatar between 2005 and 2015 by applying the index decomposition analysis (IDA) method. Five socio-economic driving forces are considered in the decomposition analysis. All the driving forces contributed to more air pollution concentration changes in 2015 than in 2005, despite the decreasing trends of decomposition results for the period of 2010–2015. In general, economic growth, pollution intensity, and energy intensity significantly contributed to the changes of air pollutant concentrations, while energy structure and population growth had marginal effects. Finally, appropriate policy recommendations are proposed to the local government so that they can initiate feasible policies to effectively reduce air pollution, protect human health, and respond to climate change in Ulaanbaatar.