Agricultural Drought Assessment in a Typical Plain Region Based on Coupled Hydrology–Crop Growth Model and Remote Sensing Data

Abstract

An agricultural drought assessment is the basis for formulating agricultural drought mitigation strategies. Traditional agricultural drought assessment methods reflect agricultural drought degree by using the soil water deficit, e.g., Soil Moisture Anomaly Percentage Index (SMAPI). However, due to varying water demands for different crops, a given soil water deficit results in varying crop water deficits and agricultural droughts. This variation often leads to a misinterpretation of agricultural drought classification when one only considers the soil water deficit. To consider the influence of crop growth, this study proposes an agricultural drought assessment method by coupling hydrological and crop models (variable infiltration capacity-environmental policy integrated climate, VIC-EPIC). Agricultural drought in Jiangsu Province, China was evaluated using the VIC-EPIC model and crop water anomaly percentage index (CWAPI). The validation results based on the actual drought records showed that the correlation coefficients (0.79 and 0.82, respectively) of the statistical values and CWAPI simulated values of light and moderate drought area rates were greater than those for SMAPI (0.72 and 0.81, respectively), indicating that the simulation results of the VIC-EPIC model in Jiangsu Province were highly reasonable. The temporal and spatial variation characteristics of the drought grade in typical large-scale drought events in Jiangsu Province were also analyzed.