Enhancing Runoff Simulation Using BTOP-LSTM Hybrid Model in the Shinano River Basin

Abstract

Runoff simulation is an ongoing challenge in the field of hydrology. Process-based (PB) hydrological models often gain unsatisfactory simulation accuracy due to incomplete physical process representations. While the deep learning (DL) models demonstrate their capacity to grasp intricate hydrological response processes, they still face constraints pertaining to the representative training data and comprehensive hydrological observations. In order to provide unobservable hydrological variables from the PB model to the DL model, this study constructed hybrid models by feeding the output variables of the PB model (BTOP) into the DL model (LSTM) as additional input features. These variables underwent feature dimensionality reduction using the feature selection method (Pearson Correlation Coefficient, PCC) and the feature extraction method (Principal Component Analysis, PCA) before input into LSTM. The results showed that the standalone LSTM performed well across the basin, with NSE values all exceeding 0.70. The hybrid models enhanced the simulation performance of the standalone LSTM. The NSE values increased from 0.75 to nearly 0.80 in a sub-basin. Lastly, if the BTOP output is directly fed into LSTM without feature dimensionality reduction, the model’s accuracy significantly decreases due to noise interference. The NSE value decreased by 0.09 compared to the standalone LSTM in a sub-basin. The results demonstrated the effectiveness of PCC and PCA in removing redundant information within hydrological variables. These findings provide new insights into incorporating physical information into LSTM and constructing hybrid models.