Tracking Spatiotemporal Patterns of Rwanda’s Electrification Using Multi-Temporal VIIRS Nighttime Light Imagery

Abstract

After recovering from the Rwanda Genocide in the last century, Rwanda is experiencing rapid economic growth and urban expansion. With increasing demand for electricity and a strong desire to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), it is significant to further investigate the electrification progress in Rwanda. This study analyzes the characteristics of electrification in Rwanda from 2012 to 2020 using VIIRS nighttime light imagery. Firstly, by analysis of the nighttime light change patterns on a national scale, we find that the electrification in Rwanda is seriously unbalanced, as electrification progress in Kigali is much faster than that in the rest of the country. Secondly, there is a common phenomenon where power grid expansion in Rwanda fails to keep pace with rapid urbanization, especially in areas with an inadequate electricity infrastructure foundation. Quantitatively, original electricity infrastructure level shows a positive impact on the grid access of new settlements, with an R2 value of 0.695 in the linear regression. In addition, new settlements inside the urban boundary tend to achieve more extensive grid access compared to those outside the boundary. Finally, the grid access rates are calculated on multi-spatial scales. By comparing the calculated results with the official electricity access rate data, we analyze the development of off-grid access in Rwanda. The results imply that, since 2016, off-grid access has rapidly developed in Rwanda, especially in the rural areas, playing an important role in achieving the SDGs.