Collision Probability Prediction and Orbit Maneuvering Probability Determination of Non-Cooperative Space Object Orbit

Abstract

Probability of collision between non-cooperative space object (NCSO) and the reference spacecraft (RS) has been increased drastically over the past few decades. The traditional method is difficult to identify the maneuvering of non-cooperative space object. In the present paper, not only positions and velocities, but also accelerations of non-cooperative space object are estimated as parameters by the extended Kalman filtering based on setting up the state linear equation and measurement model of the non-cooperative space object. The algorithm for predicting collision probability is derived from position error ellipsoid, and the algorithm for determining maneuvering probability is derived from maneuvering acceleration and its error ellipsoid, which can be employed to identify whether the upcoming space object is being maneuvered. An epoch Earth-centered inertial (EECI) coordinate system is suggested to replace Earth-centered inertial (ECI) to simplify coordinate transformation. Finally, a set of simulations were conducted to validate the proposed algorithms with the simulated measurement data of the reference spacecraft space-borne millimeter-wave (MMW) radar.