Application of Semi-Empirical Models Based on Satellite Images for Estimating Solar Irradiance in Korea

Author:

M. P. Garniwa Pranda,A. A. Ramadhan Raden,Lee Hyun-Jin

Abstract

The application of solar energy as a renewable energy source has significantly escalated owing to its abundance and availability worldwide. However, the intermittent behavior of solar irradiance is a serious disadvantage for electricity grids using photovoltaic (PV) systems. Thus, reliable solar irradiance data are vital to achieve consistent energy production. Geostationary satellite images have become a solution to this issue, as they represent a database for solar irradiance on a massive spatiotemporal scale. The estimation of global horizontal irradiance (GHI) using satellite images has been developed based on physical and semi-empirical models, but only a few studies have been dedicated to modeling GHI using semi-empirical models in Korea. Therefore, this study conducted a comparative analysis to determine the most suitable semi-empirical model of GHI in Korea. Considering their applicability, the Beyer, Rigollier, Hammer, and Perez, models were selected to estimate the GHI over Seoul, Korea. After a comparative evaluation, the Hammer model was determined to be the best model. This study also introduced a hybrid model and applied a long short-term memory (LSTM) model in order to improve prediction accuracy. The hybrid model exhibited a smaller root-mean-square error (RMSE), 97.08 W/m2, than that of the Hammer model, 103.92 W/m2, while producing a comparable mean-bias error. Meanwhile, the LSTM model showed the potential to further reduce the RMSE by 11.2%, compared to the hybrid model.

Funder

National Research Foundation of Korea

Korea Evaluation Institute of Industrial Technology

Publisher

MDPI AG

Subject

Fluid Flow and Transfer Processes,Computer Science Applications,Process Chemistry and Technology,General Engineering,Instrumentation,General Materials Science

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