MIS 5.5 Highstand and Future Sea Level Flooding at 2100 and 2300 in Tectonically Stable Areas of Central Mediterranean Sea: Sardinia and the Pontina Plain (Southern Latium), Italy

Abstract

Areas of the Mediterranean Sea are dynamic habitats in which human activities have been conducted for centuries and which feature micro-tidal environments with about 0.40 m of range. For this reason, human settlements are still concentrated along a narrow coastline strip, where any change in the sea level and coastal dynamics may impact anthropic activities. We analyzed light detection and ranging (LiDAR) and Copernicus Earth observation data. The aim of this research is to provide estimates and detailed maps (in three coastal plain of Sardinia (Italy) and in the Pontina Plain (southern Latium, Italy) of: (i) the past marine transgression occurred during MIS 5.5 highstand 119 kyrss BP; (ii) the coastline regression occurred during the last glacial maximum MIS 2 (21.5 krs cal BP); and (iii) the potential marine submersion for 2100 and 2300. The objective of this multidisciplinary study is to provide maps of sea level rise future scenarios using the IPCC RCP 8.5 2019 projections and glacio-hydro-isostatic movements for the above selected coastal zones (considered tectonically stable), which are the locations of touristic resorts, railways and heritage sites. We estimated a potential loss of land for the above areas of between about 146 km2 (IPCC 2019-RCP8.5 scenario) and 637 km2 along a coastline length of about 268 km.