Predictive Score for Advanced Colorectal Neoplasia Based on Cardiovascular and Colorectal Cancer Risk Factors

Author:

Ruiz-Belmonte Lara M.1ORCID,Carrera-Lasfuentes Patricia2,Cebollada-Solanas Alberto3ORCID,Scarpignato Carmelo4ORCID,Lanas Angel5678ORCID,Gargallo-Puyuelo Carla J.56ORCID

Affiliation:

1. Department of Gastroenterology, Miguel Servet University Hospital, Paseo Isabel La Católica, 1–3, 50009 Zaragoza, Spain

2. Faculty of Health Sciences, Universidad San Jorge, Villanueva de Gállego, 50830 Zaragoza, Spain

3. Unidad de Biocomputación, Instituto Aragonés de Ciencias de la Salud (IACS/IIS Aragón), Centro de Investigación Biomédica de Aragón (CIBA), 50009 Zaragoza, Spain

4. Department of Health Sciences, United Campus of Malta, MSD 2080 Msida, Malta

5. Department of Gastroenterology, Lozano Blesa University Clinical Hospital, Av: San Juan Bosco, 15, 50009 Zaragoza, Spain

6. Institute of Health Research Aragon (IIS Aragon), 50009 Zaragoza, Spain

7. Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red de Enfermedades Hepáticas y Digestivas (CIBEREHD), Instituto de Salud Carlos III (ISCIII), 28029 Madrid, Spain

8. School of Medicine, University of Zaragoza, 50009 Zaragoza, Spain

Abstract

Background and Aims: Cardiovascular disease and colorectal cancer (CRC) are significant health problems and share some risk factors. The aim of our study was to develop and validate a predictive score for advanced colorectal neoplasia (CRN) based on risk factors for cardiovascular disease and CRC. Materials and Methods: A cross-sectional study comprising a derivation cohort and an external validation cohort of 1049 and 308 patients, respectively. A prediction score for advanced CRN (CRNAS: Colorectal Neoplasia Advanced Score) was developed from a logistic regression model, comprising sex, age, first-degree family history for CRC, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, HDL cholesterol, body mass index, diabetes, smoking, and antihypertensive treatment. Other cardiovascular risk scores (Framingham–Wilson, REGICOR, SCORE, and FRESCO) were also used to predict the risk of advanced CRN. The discriminatory capacity of each score was evaluated using the area under the curve (AUC). Results: CRN were found in 379 subjects from the derivation cohort (36%), including 228 patients (22%) with an advanced CRN. Male sex, age, diabetes, and smoking were identified as independent risk factors for advanced CRN. The newly created score (CRNAS) showed an AUC of 0.68 (95% CI: 0.64–0.73) for advanced CRN, which was better than cardiovascular risk scores (p < 0.001). In the validation cohort, the AUC of CRNAS for advanced CRN was 0.67 (95% CI: 0.57–0.76). Conclusions: The newly validated CRNAS has a better discriminatory capacity to predict advanced CRN than cardiovascular scores. It may be useful for selecting candidates for screening colonoscopy, especially in those with cardiovascular risk factors.

Funder

Translational Research Group in Digestive Pathology of the IIS Aragón

Publisher

MDPI AG

Reference37 articles.

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