Peaking Dynamics of the Production Cycle of a Nonrenewable Resource

Abstract

We use a system dynamics model to analyse the cycle of production of a nonrenewable natural resource, with a specific interest in crude oil. This subject has been empirically studied for a long time. However, modelling studies able to correlate the peaking with the parameters of the system have been very rare, and only recently proposed. In the present paper, we examine the timing of the peaking mainly as a function of the energy return for energy invested (EROI). The model provides approximate formulas for evaluating the peak time and “rules of thumb” that are useful for understanding the peaking phenomenon in the exploitation of natural resources. It shows that the peaking of the production curve occurs at a time that is inversely proportional to the EROI of the process at the start of the cycle.