Autonomous Vehicle Use and Urban Space Transformation: A Scenario Building and Analysing Method

Abstract

The use of autonomous vehicles (AVs) has the potential to transform users’ behaviour and urban space management. Quantitative and qualitative analyses of impacts require a scenario building method. We considered the fleet size, modal share, car ownership, parking preferences, and urban space repurposing during the elaboration of a novel method. Existing scenarios and results of a questionnaire survey have been used as sources. The method was applied to build scenarios in a case study in Budapest, Hungary. The results were used to calculate the impacts on urban space management, including environmental savings. The key findings are: scenarios with significant shared AV use show that parking demand may be minimised (almost 83%) and urban space repurposing has the highest potential; furthermore, AV use and sharing acceptability may decrease the fleet size and alter the type of shared mode to multiple occupancies. The developed scenario building method serves as a base for future studies. The produced scenarios allow the researchers to focus on the analysis of the impacts caused.