How Will the Technological Shift in Transportation Impact Cities? A Review of Quantitative Studies on the Impacts of New Transportation Technologies

Abstract

Recent developments in vehicle automation, connectivity, electro-mobility and ridesharing are expected to transform urban mobility patterns and reshape cities. There is enormous uncertainty about how these technological developments, collectively referred to as the ‘technological shift in transportation’, may impact cities. This paper examines whether the technological shift in transportation will lead cities on a path to sustainability in five aspects—traffic flow, space use, energy consumption, transit and active mobility and economic affordability—through a review of 34 quantitative studies. We find that these studies backed by analytical and simulation models can provide more precise answers, and their results tend to contradict each other based on starting conditions, modelling methods and other driving factors. These driving factors fall within four categories: technological integration, policy, operations and urban planning. The interaction of these driving forces will determine if the technological shift improves transportation sustainability or is detrimental for the city in the long term.