Modeling Land Suitability for Vitis vinifera in Michigan Using Advanced Geospatial Data and Methods

Abstract

Michigan (MI) has a long history of diverse agricultural production. One of the most rapidly expanding and profitable agricultural crops, wine grapes (Vitis vinifera L.), has only been in cultivation across MI since the 1970s. As of 2014 more than 2100 acres of Vitis vinifera were growing statewide. With such success there is a push to rapidly develop more vinifera vineyards across the state. The industry is striving to have 10,000 acres in cultivation by 2024. This study presents a data-driven approach for guiding decision making to make this goal attainable. The study models land suitability across the state using environmental, climate, topographic and land use data to understand the most to least ideal portions of the landscape for vinifera establishment. The models are tested in 17 MI counties. The study found that land suitability for viticulture has expanded and therefore, viticulture can be extended beyond the traditional growing areas. This study suggests that warming temperatures have influenced land suitability and demonstrates the application and utility of GIS-based land suitability modeling in viticulture development. Maps produced in this study provide knowledge of the climate and environmental trends, which is critical when choosing where and what cultivar to grow. With such resources, growers can be better prepared to invest and expand this pivotal agricultural sector.