Contribution of Satellite-Derived Aerosol Optical Depth PM2.5 Bayesian Concentration Surfaces to Respiratory-Cardiovascular Chronic Disease Hospitalizations in Baltimore, Maryland

Abstract

The fine particulate matter baseline (PMB), which includes PM2.5 monitor readings fused with Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model predictions, using the Hierarchical Bayesian Model (HBM), is less accurate in rural areas without monitors. To address this issue, an upgraded HBM was used to form four experimental aerosol optical depth (AOD)-PM2.5 concentration surfaces. A case-crossover design and conditional logistic regression evaluated the contribution of the AOD-PM2.5 surfaces and PMB to four respiratory-cardiovascular hospital events in all 99 12 km2 CMAQ grids, and in grids with and without ambient air monitors. For all four health outcomes, only two AOD-PM2.5 surfaces, one not kriged (PMC) and the other kriged (PMCK), had significantly higher Odds Ratios (ORs) on lag days 0, 1, and 01 than PMB in all grids, and in grids without monitors. In grids with monitors, emergency department (ED) asthma PMCK on lag days 0, 1 and 01 and inpatient (IP) heart failure (HF) PMCK ORs on lag days 01 were significantly higher than PMB ORs. Warm season ORs were significantly higher than cold season ORs. Independent confirmation of these results should include AOD-PM2.5 concentration surfaces with greater temporal-spatial resolution, now easily available from geostationary satellites, such as GOES-16 and GOES-17.